中国出境旅游的外交效应

2000年以来，中国出境旅游高增长、高消费，影响力不断增大，成为国家外交战略的重要内容，外交效应逐渐显现。通过辨析中国出境旅游外交效应的概念、表现形式和结果，基于10个中国主要出境目的国的旅游互动数据，采用DIF-GMM计量经济模型，实证检验了中国出境旅游外交效应。结果表明，中国通过有序推进ADS协议、加强经济援助、举办“旅游年”活动、实施旅游“制裁”，并积极参与国际制度建设等旅游外交行为，促进了与世界各国的友好交往，维护了自身核心利益，提升了外交软实力和国际影响力。国际旅游反作用于国际关系，对国际关系具有显著的正向促进作用，不仅是国际关系的结果，而且是其重要动因之一。中国出境旅游与政治、经济、社会、文化等联动，多方面提升了中国的国际影响力。     

Pushing the speed limit in enantioselective supercritical fluid chromatography

Chromatographic enantioseparations on the order of a few seconds can be achieved by supercritical fluid chromatography using short columns packed with chiral stationary phases. The evolution of ‘world record’ speeds for the chromatographic separation of enantiomers has steadily dropped from an industry standard of 20–40 min just two decades ago, to a current ability to perform many enantioseparations in well under a minute. Improvements in instrument and column technologies enabled this revolution, but the ability to predict optimal separation time from an initial method development screening assay using the t_{min cc} predictor greatly simplifies the development and optimization of high‐speed chiral chromatographic separations. In this study, we illustrate how the use of this simple tool in combination with the workhorse technique of supercritical fluid chromatography on customized short chiral columns (1–2 cm length) allows us to achieve ultrafast enantioseparations of pharmaceutically relevant compounds on the 5–20 s scale, bringing the technique of high‐throughput enantiopurity analysis out of the specialist realm and into the laboratories of most researchers.     

Full Bayesian analysis of claims reserving uncertainty

We revisit the gamma–gamma Bayesian chain-ladder (BCL) model for claims reserving in non-life insurance. This claims reserving model is usually used in an empirical Bayesian way using plug-in estimates for the variance parameters. The advantage of this empirical Bayesian framework is that allows us for closed form solutions. The main purpose of this paper is to develop the full Bayesian case also considering prior distributions for the variance parameters and to study the resulting sensitivities.     

Lot‐sizing policies for deterioration items under two‐level trade credit with partial trade credit to credit‐risk retailer and limited storage capacity

The main purpose of this article is to investigate the optimal wholesaler's replenishment decisions for deterioration items under two levels of the trade credit policy and two storage facilities in order to reflect the supply chain management situation within the economic order quantity framework. In this study, each of the following assumptions have been made: (1) The own warehouse with limited capacity always is not sufficient to store the order quantity, so that a rented warehouse is needed to store the excess units over the capacity of the own warehouse; (2) The wholesaler always obtains the partial trade credit, which is independent of the order quantity offered by the supplier, but the wholesaler offers the full trade credit to the retailer; (3) The wholesaler must take a loan to pay his or her supplier the partial payment immediately when the order is received and then pay off the loan with the entire revenue. Under these three conditions, the wholesaler can obtain the least costs. Furthermore, this study models the wholesaler's optimal replenishment decisions under the aforementioned conditions in the supply chain management. Two theorems are developed to efficiently determine the optimal replenishment decisions for the wholesaler. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the theorems that are proven in this study, and the sensitivity analysis with respect to the major parameters in this study is performed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于两阶段灰色聚类模型的新疆经济社会发展水平评价研究

通过两阶段灰色聚类模型选择影响经济社会发展水平,基础设施建设,相关产业发展水平以及区域经济基础四个一级指标的10个二级指标来构建区域经济社会发展水平评价指标体系,以2013年新疆14地州市相关数据为样本,运用基于改进的中心点混合三角白化权函数把新疆各地州市从经济社会发展的角度划分成4个区域,为"新丝绸之路经济带"下新疆各地州的经济与社会发展定位提供依据最后找出属于三、四级经济圈内地区经济与社会发展落后的原因并提出相关建议.     

河北省装备制造产业发展的灰色关联分析

基于灰色系统中的关联分析方法,从动态的视角出发,对河北省装备制造产业生产总值与装备制造产业系统内部结构关系进行研究分析,得出河北省装备制造产业的发展具有以下特点:金属制品业等资源加工型产业依旧在装备制造产业中占据主导地位,通用装备业和仪器仪表业等技术密集型产业的贡献率相对不足.因此,应从河北省的实际情况出发,不断优化装备制造的内部产业结构。     

基于回归分析方法下公共交通对经济增长的影响分析

随着社会经济的发展及人们环保意识的不断增强,公共交通事业的发展及其投资力度不断加大,公共交通在给人们带来方便的同时也在带动着经济的发展.通过扩展的生产函数模型,采用普通最小二乘方法对2003-2012年间的公共交通数据进行估计分析,并找出有异常值的样本点,然后利用稳健MM估计方法进行估计,结果表明公共交通变量对经济的影响具有正相关作用.     

不同类型专利对经济增长影响的实证研究

文章考察三种不同类型专利对经济增长的影响,结合广东省1985-2014年最新数据,通过Matlab、Excel软件对数据进行图像模拟,并根据函数理论、计量经济学理论,创造性地构建一种多元非线性计量模型。进一步地,运用所得模型进行实证分析,结果显示发明专利在经济增长中产生的影响远大于实用新型专利和外观设计专利,论证了原创性创新在现阶段广东省经济转型升级中的核心作用。     

区域低碳协同发展评价:京津冀、长三角和珠三角城市群的比较分析

京津冀、长三角和珠三角城市群是中国经济高度发达、最具发展潜力的区域,在低碳发展方面起到引领作用.从经济、资源、环境和绩效的角度构建区域低碳协同发展评价指标体系,采用结合逼近理想解的TOPSIS方法、灰色关联理论和距离协同模型,利用2005~2014年三大城市群50个城市数据实证分析了三大城市群的低碳协同发展程度.结果表明,三大城市群低碳协同发展度整体上呈现上升趋势,其低碳协同程度从高到底依次为长三角、珠三角和京津冀城市群.     

基于学科理解的初中化学教师专业发展研究——以大概念课例“物质成分的探究”研发项目为例

学科理解是教师专业发展的重要内容,可以为素养为本的课堂教学提供学科功能分析。收集在大概念课例“物质成分的探究”研讨过程中的研讨视频、教师访谈录音、课堂教学视频、教学设计等数据,利用学科功能分析要素通过定性内容分析法分析在专业学习共同体干预下初中化学教师的学科理解的特征及变化,从而探寻教师的专业发展情况。结果表明,教师的学科理解发生了显著的改变,教师的专业素养在理论和实践上均有转变。同时也证实了专业学习共同体干预下基于学科理解的大概念课例研讨活动可以促进教师的专业发展,为教研活动和教师培训提供新的视角和范式。